Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Cl ose)
Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(0.3)
(97)
36,227
U.S. stocks fluctuated over the course of the trading session on Friday after ending
Nifty
(0.4)
(47)
10,930
the previous session mostly higher. The major averages spent the day bouncing
Mid Cap
(1.6)
(241)
14,763
back and forth across the unchanged line before ending the day roughly flat. Bothe
Small Cap
(3.4)
(509)
14,430
the Dow and the Nasdaq inched up 0.1 percent to 26,458 and 8,046, respectively.
Bankex
0.0
8
27,992
UK stocks fell modestly on Friday after data showed the U.K. economy grew by 0.5
percent in the second half of this year, marking the weakest half-year growth since
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Cl ose)
2011. The FTSE 100 was down by 0.5 percent at 7,510.
Dow Jones
0.1
18
26,458
On domestic front, Indian stocks fluctuated on Friday, as oil prices continued to
Nasdaq
0.1
4
8,046
surge and financials remained under selling pressure ahead of RBI policy meeting
FTSE
(0.5)
(35)
7,510
next week. The BSE Sensex fell for the third straight session by 0.3% to 36,227.
Nikkei
1.3
323
24,120
Hang Seng
0.3
73
27,788
Shanghai Com
1.0
29
2,821
News Analysis
Govt cuts gross market borrowings by Rs 700 billion for FY19
A dvances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Advances
527
299
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
Declines
2,128
1,480
Unchanged
146
278
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Refer Pg5 onwards
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
1,820
Top Picks
NSE
853
C MP
Target
U psi de
C ompany
Sector
R ating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
565
867
53.5
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Ne t
Mtd
Ytd
Dewan Housi ng Finance
Financials
Buy
275
500
81.8
FII
(1,077)
(1,418)
(6,857)
Parag Milk F oods
Others
Buy
240
410
70.8
*MFs
1,125
3,967
80,584
Bata India
Others
Buy
972
1,243
27.9
KEI Industrie s
Capital Goods
Buy
357
589
65.0
More Top Picks on Pg4
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Key Upcoming Events
DBCORP
216
6.2
Previous
C onsensus
D ate
Region
Event Description
INDHOTEL
135
5.3
ReadingExpectations
KEI
358
5.0
Oct 01, 2018 UK
PMI Manufacturing
52.80
Oct 05, 2018 US
Change in N onfarm payrolls
201.00
BASF
1860
4.7
Oct 05, 2018 US
Unnemployment rate
3.90
CANFINHOME
238
4.4
Oct 05, 2018 India
RBI Reverse Re po rate
52.80
Oct 05, 2018 India
RBI Repo rate
201.00
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
More Events on Pg7
INFIBEAM
59
-70.2
LAKSHVILAS
71
-19.8
JISJALEQS
61
-15.4
COX&KINGS
165
-13.3
JINDALSTEL
196
-12.5
As on Sept 28, 2018
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
News Analysis
Govt cuts gross market borrowings by Rs 700 billion for FY19
The government will cut gross market borrowings by Rs 700 billion for 2018-19
with the help of resources from small savings to finance its fiscal deficit, which is
expected to remain within the targeted 3.3 per cent of gross domestic product
(GDP).
This move, along with measures of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), is expected to
ease pressure on bond yields and liquidity. For the second half, the government
will mop up Rs 2.47 trillion as market borrowings, which will include issuances of
inflation-linked bonds. While the target of net market borrowing will be retained,
that for buybacks will be reduced.
The government had budgeted mopping up Rs 6.06 trillion in FY19, but will now
raise Rs.5.35 trillion (Rs.2.88 trillion in the first half and Rs.2.47 trillion in the
second half). Reduced buyback and increased resources from small savings will
make up for the lower market borrowing.
Earlier, the government had said it would reduce buyback by Rs.250 billion and
raise an additional Rs.250 billion from small savings in FY19. This had been
raised by Rs.200 billion, for the whole of which the buyback would be reduced
further
Economic and Political News
EOW files case against 300 brokers in NSEL case on Sebi complaint
Kerala to raise Rs 159 bn in loans from WB, ADB for rebuilding after floods
Corporate News
KKR, Blackstone Group to consider $3 billion Shriram deal
Crisis-hit IL&FS can raise Rs 700 billion by selling assets, says LIC
RBI cracks whip on Bandhan Bank for violating shareholding norms
BPCL approves Rs 111 bn investment for petrochemical unit at Kochi
HCC sells road asset to Singapore's Cube Highways for Rs 3.7 bn
Tata Power completes $770 million ECB refinancing for Mundra UMPP
L&T construction arm secures orders Rs 14 bn from Rajasthan, Andhra
Pradesh
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
C MP
Target
Upside
C ompany
R ationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
4,628
565
867
53.5
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once oper ating
environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer se gme nt, the company has increased its
Dewan Housi ng Finance
8,642
275
500
81.8
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity i s immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
196,261
305
416
36.4
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industrie s
2,803
357
589
65.0
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,822
319
475
48.9
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
1,797
383
690
80.2
boost growth going ahe ad. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
222,045
7,350
10,820
47.2
improve the company’s sales volume and
margins, respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,367
254
486
91.3
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in
NIM improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segme nt
Increase d product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
1,568
703
1,071
52.3
distribution network i s leadi ng to strong growth i n
busine ss. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
25,315
115
218
89.6
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companie s in Indi a created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk F oods
2,018
240
410
70.8
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintaine d its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by
20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
544,970
2,005
2,350
17.2
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provi des strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
C MP
Target
Upside
C ompany
R ationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
107,001
860
1,050
22.1
the model
) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improveme nt in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprise s
2,908
925
1,230
33.0
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwe ar retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
12,492
972
1,243
27.9
mainly due to new product launches, hi gher
number of store s addition and focus on
women’s high growth se gme nt and margin
improve ment
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
26,007
1,146
1,764
53.9
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
18,896
196
327
66.8
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improve ment.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipme nt. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaulder
1,388
950
1,287
35.5
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in de mand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmace uticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companie s, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceutical s
43,576
743
870
17.1
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of
~13% & ~8% re sp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/ s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planne d strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fee s
Yes Bank
42,363
183
330
80.3
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improve ment in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a he althy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
21,732
512
670
30.9
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower cre dit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its succe ssful transformati on from a single
TTK Prestige
7,429
6,376
8,200
28.6
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
C MP
Target
Upside
C ompany
R ationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report expone ntial
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
1,950
88
127
44.3
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regi me and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
35,431
119
156
31.1
activities and no signi ficant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
C MP
Target
Upside
C ompany
R ationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,339
251
360
43.4
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,520
1,689
2,178
29.0
healthy de mand growth in pl astic divi sion. O n the
bottom-line front, we e stimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improve ment in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipme nts li ke motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,528
1,928
2,500
29.7
demand from several industries w hich are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in de mand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
1,901
155
333
114.8
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination busine ss on the
back of strong brand and di stribution network
L&T Fin’s new manage ment is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Hol ding
25,033
129
210
62.8
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bl oomberg Data
D ate
Time
C ountry
Event Description
Unit
Period
L ast Reporte d
E stimate d
Oct 01, 2018
2:00 PM UK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
52.80Oct 01, 2018
Oct 05, 2018
6:00 PM US
Change in N onfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
201.00Oct 05, 2018
6:00 PM US
Unnemployment rate
%
Sep
3.90
2:30 PM India
RBI Reverse Re po rate
%
Oct 5
6.25
2:30 PM India
RBI Repo rate
%
Oct 5
6.50
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
-
Oct 10, 2018
2:00 PM UK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.90Oct 10, 2018
6:00 PM US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.20
Oct 11, 2018
2:30 PM India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
%
Oct 5
4.00Oct 11, 2018
Oct 12, 2018
5:30 PM India
Industrial Production YoY
% Change
Aug
6.60Oct 12, 2018
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Sep
9.80
Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00 UK
Joble ss claims change
Thousands
Sep
8.70Oct 16, 2018
0-Jan-00 China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Sep
2.30
Oct 19, 2018
0-Jan-00 China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
3Q
6.70Oct 19, 2018
Oct 25, 2018
0-Jan-00 Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
%
Oct 25
-Oct 25, 2018
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
C ountry
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,429
(4.0)
5.6
2.7
Russia
Micex
4,327
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,515
0.7
6.1
14.1
China
Shanghai Composite
2,682
(1.5)
(11.3)
(20.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,441
1.7
(1.7)
1.9
Mexico
Mexbol
49,612
2.2
6.3
(1.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
937
(2.7)
(2.6)
(4.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,804
(0.1)
1.6
1.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,136
2.5
0.7
9.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,155
3.4
3.9
17.5
UK
FTSE
7,304
(4.0)
(4.3)
0.7
Japan
Nikkei
23,095
4.0
1.1
19.8
Germany
DAX
12,124
(0.3)
(5.5)
(3.2)
France
CAC
5,353
0.9
(1.8)
2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As of 25 Sep, 2018
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
D ate Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Curre nt Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
31-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,235
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprise s
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Hol ding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/ 2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk F oods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk F oods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/ 04/ 2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/ 05/ 2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/ 01/ 2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
D ate Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Curre nt Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/ 05/ 2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/ 01/ 2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/ 02/ 2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/ 2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/ 2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologie s Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/ 12/ 2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Hol dings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/ 8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/ 03/ 2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industrie s
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industrie s
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/ 05/ 2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/ 02/ 2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/ 05/ 2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/ 2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
October 01, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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